Tuesday, July 05, 2022

Near future In the Ukraine war, quagmire

 “On the other side, Russian progress on the ground and the intensifying attrition of Ukrainian forces offer no incentive to halt the war and simply settle for its original, probably minimal war goals of ‘denazification’ and ‘demiitarization of Ukraine and seizing all Donbass up to the administrative borders of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions – the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) as they are regarded in Moscow, Crimea, and Donbass – in support of their independence recognized by Moscow three days before its invasion. Every inch of territory Moscow seizes beyond the former ‘occupied territories’, as regarded by Kiev, including the additional Donetsk and Luhansk regional territories makes implementation of a ceasefire and withdrawal more complicated. They also make Kiev less likely to negotiate in the short- to mid-term, in lieu of an almost inevitable existential threat to the Ukrainian state such as it exists. By that time there will be a rump Ukraine territorially, a decimated Ukraine economically, and an unstable Ukraine politically.” from Avoiding a Russian Quagmire, the Improbable Ukrainian Peace, and the Risk of Direct Russo-NATO War

Another https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/06/how-to-lose-big-in-ukraine/

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