SITREP 5/29/23: Kiev Rocked as New Satellite Photos Prove Patriot Destruction
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Monday, May 29, 2023
Saturday, May 27, 2023
Friday, May 26, 2023
Simplicius the thinker about himself
Here He confirms that he posted as 'nightvision' in The Saker blog. He is one of the best bloggers on Ukraine SMO and related topics for a while and will now go full time as a blogger. Will his success continue? Somehow, I doubt it. The detachment and objectivity of an outsider will probably be compromised by the obligation to publish regularly and keep his paid subscribers engaged. It will be good for awhile and then I expect it go the way of all flesh. I have stopped following the operation in detail since the end seems clear.
Monday, May 22, 2023
Sunday, May 21, 2023
Further possibilities after the fall of Bakhmut from Simplicius the thinker
He seems to think of this possibility:
“ The final consideration in all this is a question many people have voiced in the comments recently. Which is: how/why does the West think they can actually succeed in ‘freezing’ this conflict at the snap of a finger? What gives them the hubris to believe they can simply call the entire war off at any point of their choosing?
I’ve mentioned before that the belief stems from the great economic leverage that the West still holds over key Russian allies which the West will attempt to rally for a huge international ‘peace’ coalition. There are a variety of financial/economic instruments they have to do this with. For instance, there’s the threat of imposing new sanctions on everyone from Iran to China. And then there’s also the offer of relieving already-held sanctions, in exchange for pressuring Putin to ‘come to the table’. For instance, the U.S. can wave the postponement of arming Taiwan in front of China’s face, or something along those lines. There are many such potential vectors, and U.S. knows all of them well.”
This seems to ignore the economic pain and unrest in Europe and how long they can take it. as Emmanuel Todd pointed out, there is the problem of replacement levels in Russia in about two years more. Considering that Ukraine is already depleted in terms of population and birthdates, it seems possible that the main war may be over in a year or so.
SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What's Next?
Saturday, May 20, 2023
Friday, May 19, 2023
What happened to European leaders?
Marion Fourcade Michael Reay have written about the transnationalization of economics. The effects seem most severe in Europe where many leaders seem to have similar background and policies. The effects seem less severe in other countries outside Facebook and blogosphere. Here is a post from five years ago by Tim Taylor Economics:Reviled because it matters
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Sri Sri on Russia
గర్జించురష్యా:
గాండ్రించురష్యా:
పర్జన్యశంఖంపలికించు రష్యా:
దౌర్జన్యరాజ్యం ధంసించురష్యా:
లేలే, రష్యా:
రారా, రష్యా:
రష్యా: రష్యా: రష్యా: ఓ రష్యా:
వ్యక్తిసతస్సిద్ధ సాతంత్రదాతా:
పతితనిర్గతిక ప్రపంచత్రాతా:
బావికలసర్ణభవన నిర్మాతా:
లేలేలేరష్యా:
రారారారష్యా:
రష్యా: రష్యా: రష్యా: రష్యా
……
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Sunday, May 14, 2023
A military setback for Russia
Black Day for Russian VVS as 'Special Air Group' Destroyed in Ambush from Simplicius the thinker
And from Military Summary
And from Brian Berletic
Saturday, May 13, 2023
A Saigal song
You must be rubbing your eyes. I always knew this song as a Saigal solo. This was my favourite among iconic KL Saigal solos. Surely this has to figure in the main section of the best male solos in the year. But listen to the song carefully, someone calls Soordasji and sings the last line Soor Shyam bhatko mat dar dar, kholo man ke dwaare. This is clearly sung by another voice. A comment in the YT link mentions that this line is sung by Saigal’s younger brother Mohinder Saigal who also played the role of Shri Krishna in the film. It is sad that this film is no longer available.
Thursday, May 11, 2023
Yves Smith and Michael Hudson on dollar hegemony
Yves Smith comments about Russia having excess rupees. It seems that India is selling refined Russian oil to Europe which may mitigate this. In any case, it may take a few decades and several attempts to reduce dollar hegemony which seems to be happening.
NY Times Is Wrong on Dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson Debunks Paul Krugman’s Dollar Defense
Tuesday, May 09, 2023
Book Review by Branko Milanovic
Capitalism Unchained by Krishna Nayar:
“The book is impressive in the amount of detail it marshals, in Nayar’s erudition and his eye for the unusual and the absurd, and his take-no-prisoner style. However, there are also limits: the book deals only with West European countries, and only a select few of them (UK, France, Germany), and just in one segment with Russian pre revolutionary developments. It is also true that the selection of intellectuals that are targeted by Nayar’s often acerbic, and in some cases savage or funny, commentary is limited to the relatively small group of French and British intellectuals, sprinkled, for a good measure, by a few Americans. The European intellectual scene was much broader than the people who were mentioned in the book. The book also does not deal with the rest of the world: Africa and the anti-colonial struggle are not present at all; Latin America is entirely absent; India is just mentioned in a few sentences; China is non-existent except for the Korean war. So, it is a book that in its geographical, as well as ideological, scope, and the selection of the people whom Nayar excoriates, is limited. Nevertheless, taking these limits into account it deals in a very persuasive manner with a critically important period in western political history and makes us rather fearful of the future.”
Monday, May 08, 2023
This is my guess and Simplicius the thinker thinks so too
“And my prediction is that the AFU offensive will be a stillborn catastrophe, and that U.S. and NATO will be running to China to beg for a peace offer by this fall.
In actuality, I believe that the AFU may never even launch an offensive, that’s why they’re trying to downplay it now, and are slowly conditioning us to downscale it. There’s good chance they will simply continue their little hide and seek, whack a mole games, foreplay style. Recon-by-fire used as a disguise to ‘sell’ momentum and initiative when in reality they have nothing left, particularly as we’ve learned that all the major Western nations have already greatly curtailed their afforded usage of the high-value premiere Western tanks, with secret backdoor deals restricting AFU to using the Challengers/Leopards/etc. only in safe ‘defensive’ roles, so that the precious Western junk can’t be captured.
Well, time is nigh. I guess we’ll find out soon what they really have left, and whether they have the moxie to launch a big one on May 9th as they’ve been threatening for so long to do.” sitrep 5/7/23
Sunday, May 07, 2023
From CoastalAndhra to Liverpool
There were lot of bright people in coastal Andhra when I was growing up in 1940s and 50s. I remember mainly the villages of Gudavalli, Pedapulivarru, Chintayapalem and later Vullipalem and the town of Repalle. There were both Telugu and English books in libraries. I remember the books of Darwin, Faraday, Bertrand Russell in the Repalle Library and later books of Dostoevsky and others in Thullur in private collections. There were teachers who were pundits and one Prabhala Bala Gangadhar Tilak who played Chess for the state and an international bridge player. I had no drive or ambition with so many bright people around but there was always a passion to learn. Now looking back I did some mathematics some of which may remain for a few decades as a few pieces remain still which were from 1970s. I kept wondering what caused it. perhaps it was a trip to Liverpool in 1968. An older colleague M.S. Narasimhan was already famous. He started taking interest since he too grew up in Andhra for a few years and studied in the same college in Madras. He was already in various committees and found that there was a fellowship for UK for which I was eligible. I just had 3-4 papers but no ph.d. He knew I was interested in the work of Terry Wall in Liverpool, sent him my papers and got a letter of support. I did get the fellowship and Terry Wall said what I did was enough for a ph.d. I started loafing around talking to graduate students and some teachers, learning stuff but did not really work. In a conference I met a professor from Yale and started discussing a problem. We made some progress and he invited me to Yale for a semester. Those were the days of Vietnam protests. The mathematical work stopped and I took interest in the politics around and came back to Bombay in 1970 July. Work was sporadic, the atmosphere in the institute friendly and encouraging and social and mathematical interactions with Liverpool continued with Wall inviting for a conference in 1977. Nothing particularly exciting was happening but I was still struggling and trying to learn. Then somehow things started coming together and I found I could think and work on problems sometimes about sixteen hours a day most of it with Liverpool contacts. Somehow Liverpool became the centre of my mathematical and to some extent social world. It is possible that most of this work was futile but I learnt to work for a few years and still can think about mathematics. And it all happened probably due to an accidental trip to Liverpool.
Friday, May 05, 2023
Simplicius the thinker says
Personally, I’m inclined to agree with the statements of this Russian mil-blogger, Zhivoz:
"My prediction regarding the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned out to be exceptionally correct, as well as the motives that drive the scriptwriters of this offensive.
So.
1. The fundamental goal of Ukraine and its allies is not the military defeat of Russia (this is an accompanying goal), but an attempt to bring down the entire system of power in Russia. Not to "remove Putin", namely to bring down the statehood.
2. The offensive, attacks by the Kremlin and other acts, including the choice of a date for May 9 - all these are elements of a complex scenario for the formation of public opinion in Russia unacceptable to the Kremlin, including among the military.
3. For these purposes, all means are used, including the very active work of spies and traitors in Russia itself, the superiority in the information component, Moscow's excessive humanism.
4. Based on these theses, it can be assumed that Kiev should receive serious military successes within a week, exactly by Victory Day. Hybrid attacks on Russian regions will continue, their goal is not so much damage as great humiliation.
5. At the front, in the near future, one can expect a massive missile volley both at troop positions and at rear facilities. And work on the NATO tactics of multiple strikes, infiltration, and so on.https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraines-kremlin-gambit-marks-beginning?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Thursday, May 04, 2023
Wednesday, May 03, 2023
Why everybody needs to learn some economics
The empty basket by Ha-Joon Chang who has new book. I read some of his articles and a couple of books before and am looking forward to it.
Two posts by Peter Woit
Beyond Weird about to the book by Philip Ball. Another on the same topic, this time an article by Philip Ball https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=9405&fbclid=IwAR12o_J--T_KcSUS_2LUfZbax83o1cJCAZTMzkTQXKz4iYbppoiNxxcow-U
Tuesday, May 02, 2023
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