Further possibilities after the fall of Bakhmut from Simplicius the thinker

 He seems to think of this possibility:

“ The final consideration in all this is a question many people have voiced in the comments recently. Which is: how/why does the West think they can actually succeed in ‘freezing’ this conflict at the snap of a finger? What gives them the hubris to believe they can simply call the entire war off at any point of their choosing? 

I’ve mentioned before that the belief stems from the great economic leverage that the West still holds over key Russian allies which the West will attempt to rally for a huge international ‘peace’ coalition. There are a variety of financial/economic instruments they have to do this with. For instance, there’s the threat of imposing new sanctions on everyone from Iran to China. And then there’s also the offer of relieving already-held sanctions, in exchange for pressuring Putin to ‘come to the table’. For instance, the U.S. can wave the postponement of arming Taiwan in front of China’s face, or something along those lines. There are many such potential vectors, and U.S. knows all of them well.”

This seems to ignore the economic pain and unrest in Europe and how long they can take it. as Emmanuel Todd pointed out, there is the problem of replacement levels in Russia in about two years more. Considering that Ukraine is already depleted in terms of population and birthdates, it seems possible that the main war may be over in a year or so.

SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What's Next?