Sunday, June 18, 2023
Saturday, June 17, 2023
What about air power?
Round Two? There Is No Round Two. Game pretty much over in Ukraine. AURELIEN 14 JUN 2023
“Thus, the West is at a massive structural and doctrinal disadvantage with airpower, and it is hard, if not impossible, to imagine what practical military tasks its air forces might successfully perform in a hypothetical conflict with Russia. There’s a good chance, in fact, that the age of the air-superiority aircraft is finally over, given the unprecedented advances in missile technology of the last few decades, and the mind numbing cost of individual airframes today. Now, it’s often said that NATO doctrine presupposes air superiority. This isn’t really true historically: in the Cold War NATO never expected to challenge, let alone overcome, Warsaw Pact control of the airspace over their own forces. Its aircraft relied on flying low and fast to survive in the most hostile air defence environment in the world, while hoping to retain at least some margin of air superiority over NATO territory. It’s truer to say that NATO has been operating for twenty years in environments where air control (and thus its fighter aircraft) are simply irrelevant, and the artillery metaphor of air power has been dominant.” and more in the article.
Friday, June 16, 2023
Wednesday, June 14, 2023
Putin interview with Russian journalists
Putin Invites Top Russian Correspondents For Candid War Q&A + SitRep Updates from Simplicius the thinker.
P.S. Vladimir Putin meets with Russia’s war correspondents, A shorter one fromGilbert Doctorow.
Three hour discussion on Ukraine and related topics from The Duran and Scott Ritter
I watched the first two hours and then they start on answers to questions from the audience.
Tuesday, June 13, 2023
The Duran on the continuing misconceptions about the relative strengths of the armies
One point they do not discuss is that much of the Russian army is new and not battle hardened. By now, they had months of training and now some experience during the Ukraine offensive. Perhaps they will be ready but we do not have any examples of operations where the new recruits are involved,
Monday, June 12, 2023
An overview of various commentators on the Ukraine crisis
The more I watch Military Summary, Weeb Union and all other net video-strategos, I am drawn more and more to the conclusion that those are very, and surely non-intentionally, misleading and assuming stuff that is not very realistic in the real world battleground.
Surely most of them do play a positive role of a commentator, an updater, and an analyst for uneducated masses in military matters.
Also, mr. Ritter, col. MacGregor, mr. Martyanov and others of that rank and level explain the overall situation much better having an "eagle view" on the conflict, not being bothered with the "Bradley Square" and how FPV drone blew some Hummvee in some field.
Trouble is, I find nobody who connects those two camps at a certain level. Closest were The Duran, with some early broadcasts, but I have an issue with a way of too long Mercouris' words juggling and retelling stories collected from various sources. Gudaze is cool and sober in explaining the SMO from RF MSM media positions. Indians are funny to watch and very straight forward anti-Ukraine, but also cynical on China.
The New Atlas is eloquent, and comes closest to explaining to a commoner both views, a military and political.
But he is not close to a current battlespace analysts and his role is more important in explaining Asian position, as he lives in the hood there.
Russians have some superb analysts outside English-speaking spectrum, but they are not as everyday shows, and reading from Rybar, Kots, Sladakov, and such on TG is exhausting as they tend to write cliffhangers and my TG ability is limited to just observing it as in channel preview.
George Galloway is talking about the substance that has some reach, The Redacted are funny trio with a correct mindset, also with a substantial reach.
Also, Down South does cool TG updates from Ukrainian critical perspective, not only, but certainly helpful stuff here.
B. our host here is a former military man, and he is to be trusted on operational systems and methods of both sides of the conflict.
There are some others, surely credible more or less, as Nightvision/Simplicius, Imetatronink, Big Serge do good job too.
But, I am a bit fed up, and possibly some barflies too, with reiterations of already known and expected positions.
I think we know only around 30% percent of what is really going on, countering the Western MSM that lives in some other space-time and creates some other realities.
What I do not get is how some are citing Telegraph, Sun, Bild etc.
as anything reliable. Those are the lowest common denominators for anything true and correct.
So I think the whole information circling around is broken and obfuscated beyond any repair.
MoA surely tries to fill those blanks somewhat with a slightly chaotic disorder that has its charm, but rare and highly valued content here.
Having written all this, I still feel that there is something missing, especially adding to the picture a bit more lucidity.
But I do not know what or who. Do you feel or see the same?
Sunday, June 11, 2023
Saturday, June 10, 2023
Two views of the U.S. economy
Both mention chips. From Michael Hudson https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/06/michael-hudson-on-the-us-economy-surprisingly-resilient-or-potemkin-village.html
From Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/us-building-factories-census-data-chips-act-inflation-reduction-act-2023-6?fbclid=IwAR2YRS8Py1pqOxiOlFmyKhileJQjUMl0unEKhZwPyMt6Zf0Yp-GgUmLgcc0
Latest from Simplicius the thinker on the Ukraine offensive
Anatomy of a NATO-Planned, Trained, and Armed Disaster
And one from Military Summary on the offensive last night
Friday, June 09, 2023
Arms development in USA
The United States military has a long track record of figuring out exactly what it needs for the war of the future, developing appropriate weapons, and then discarding them and being caught with its pants down when its enemies develop equivalents decades later. From https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1667007971363262464
Thursday, June 08, 2023
Khakova dam breach by Big Serge
Russo-Ukrainian War: Dam! Shorter than the one by Simplicius and also gives dome history.
“Portaging a boat on the middle Dnieper in 800 AD was dangerous. While disembarked and laboriously dragging the boat downstream, a trading party would be highly vulnerable to attack by the various warlike tribes which inhabited the region at the time. So it became necessary to build some sort of outpost stronghold which could serve as a waypoint to make passage down the river at least acceptably safe. Hence, Kiev - buit originally as a timber fortified trading post to ease passage along the middle Dnieper.
This is perhaps interesting, but as an aside it illustrates the basic point that for most of human history the Dnieper was not a friendly or easily navigable river akin to the Mississippi or the Rhine, and in the Soviet era a major effort was undertaken at last to tame it, in the form of a series of hydroelectric dams. These dams stiffled the rapids, generated electricity, smoothed the river’s course, and created enormous resevoirs, of which the Kakhovka resevoir is the largest by volume.”
Tuesday, June 06, 2023
Simplicius the thinker’s latest on the counteroffensive
BREAKING: Hell Breaks Loose as Kakhovka Dam Completely Destroyed
“Major news broke that the Nova Khakovka dam has been completely destroyed. This is the central, extremely important dam that was critical to the whole Kherson situation last year. It was the sole reason Russia retreated, as the threat of destroying the dam kept their troops on the right/western bank of the Dnieper river highly vulnerable.”
Well this is good news. Apparently only the upper part of the dam with the control gates was destroyed. The reservoir dam foundation is still solid. That will limit the flooding as the entire reservoir won't flush out.
Monday, June 05, 2023
Sunday, June 04, 2023
Saturday, June 03, 2023
Scott Ritter echoes Keynes
"Ideas, knowledge, science, hospitality, travel – these are the things which should of their nature be international. But let goods be homespun whenever it is reasonably and conveniently possible, and, above all, let finance be primarily national.
For these strong reasons, therefore, I am inclined to the belief that a greater measure of national self-sufficiency and economic isolation among countries may tend to serve the cause of peace, rather than otherwise." From http://gesd.free.fr/knat33.pdf by Keynes.
Friday, June 02, 2023
On rising inefficiency
The Loss of Executive Function in the West Michael Hudson comments that it is not just the west. The comments lead to the following article The rise of extractive politics.
Thursday, June 01, 2023
Simplicius the thinker and The Duran on the Ukraine situation
Putin Strikes Back - Destroys GUR Bunker?
Lot of details. Probably the following gives a better overall perspective
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Monday, May 29, 2023
Saturday, May 27, 2023
Friday, May 26, 2023
Simplicius the thinker about himself
Here He confirms that he posted as 'nightvision' in The Saker blog. He is one of the best bloggers on Ukraine SMO and related topics for a while and will now go full time as a blogger. Will his success continue? Somehow, I doubt it. The detachment and objectivity of an outsider will probably be compromised by the obligation to publish regularly and keep his paid subscribers engaged. It will be good for awhile and then I expect it go the way of all flesh. I have stopped following the operation in detail since the end seems clear.
Monday, May 22, 2023
Sunday, May 21, 2023
Further possibilities after the fall of Bakhmut from Simplicius the thinker
He seems to think of this possibility:
“ The final consideration in all this is a question many people have voiced in the comments recently. Which is: how/why does the West think they can actually succeed in ‘freezing’ this conflict at the snap of a finger? What gives them the hubris to believe they can simply call the entire war off at any point of their choosing?
I’ve mentioned before that the belief stems from the great economic leverage that the West still holds over key Russian allies which the West will attempt to rally for a huge international ‘peace’ coalition. There are a variety of financial/economic instruments they have to do this with. For instance, there’s the threat of imposing new sanctions on everyone from Iran to China. And then there’s also the offer of relieving already-held sanctions, in exchange for pressuring Putin to ‘come to the table’. For instance, the U.S. can wave the postponement of arming Taiwan in front of China’s face, or something along those lines. There are many such potential vectors, and U.S. knows all of them well.”
This seems to ignore the economic pain and unrest in Europe and how long they can take it. as Emmanuel Todd pointed out, there is the problem of replacement levels in Russia in about two years more. Considering that Ukraine is already depleted in terms of population and birthdates, it seems possible that the main war may be over in a year or so.
SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What's Next?
Saturday, May 20, 2023
Friday, May 19, 2023
What happened to European leaders?
Marion Fourcade Michael Reay have written about the transnationalization of economics. The effects seem most severe in Europe where many leaders seem to have similar background and policies. The effects seem less severe in other countries outside Facebook and blogosphere. Here is a post from five years ago by Tim Taylor Economics:Reviled because it matters
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Sri Sri on Russia
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పర్జన్యశంà°–ంపలిà°•ింà°šు à°°à°·్à°¯ా:
à°¦ౌà°°్జన్యరాà°œ్à°¯ం à°§ంà°¸ింà°šుà°°à°·్à°¯ా:
à°²ేà°²ే, à°°à°·్à°¯ా:
à°°ాà°°ా, à°°à°·్à°¯ా:
à°°à°·్à°¯ా: à°°à°·్à°¯ా: à°°à°·్à°¯ా: à°“ à°°à°·్à°¯ా:
à°µ్యక్à°¤ిసతస్à°¸ిà°¦్à°§ à°¸ాà°¤ంà°¤్à°°à°¦ాà°¤ా:
పతితనిà°°్à°—à°¤ిà°• à°ª్à°°à°ªంà°šà°¤్à°°ాà°¤ా:
à°¬ాà°µికలసర్à°£à°à°µà°¨ à°¨ిà°°్à°®ాà°¤ా:
à°²ేà°²ేà°²ేà°°à°·్à°¯ా:
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à°°à°·్à°¯ా: à°°à°·్à°¯ా: à°°à°·్à°¯ా: à°°à°·్à°¯ా
……
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Sunday, May 14, 2023
A military setback for Russia
Black Day for Russian VVS as 'Special Air Group' Destroyed in Ambush from Simplicius the thinker
And from Military Summary
And from Brian Berletic
Saturday, May 13, 2023
A Saigal song
You must be rubbing your eyes. I always knew this song as a Saigal solo. This was my favourite among iconic KL Saigal solos. Surely this has to figure in the main section of the best male solos in the year. But listen to the song carefully, someone calls Soordasji and sings the last line Soor Shyam bhatko mat dar dar, kholo man ke dwaare. This is clearly sung by another voice. A comment in the YT link mentions that this line is sung by Saigal’s younger brother Mohinder Saigal who also played the role of Shri Krishna in the film. It is sad that this film is no longer available.
Thursday, May 11, 2023
Yves Smith and Michael Hudson on dollar hegemony
Yves Smith comments about Russia having excess rupees. It seems that India is selling refined Russian oil to Europe which may mitigate this. In any case, it may take a few decades and several attempts to reduce dollar hegemony which seems to be happening.
NY Times Is Wrong on Dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson Debunks Paul Krugman’s Dollar Defense
Tuesday, May 09, 2023
Book Review by Branko Milanovic
Capitalism Unchained by Krishna Nayar:
“The book is impressive in the amount of detail it marshals, in Nayar’s erudition and his eye for the unusual and the absurd, and his take-no-prisoner style. However, there are also limits: the book deals only with West European countries, and only a select few of them (UK, France, Germany), and just in one segment with Russian pre revolutionary developments. It is also true that the selection of intellectuals that are targeted by Nayar’s often acerbic, and in some cases savage or funny, commentary is limited to the relatively small group of French and British intellectuals, sprinkled, for a good measure, by a few Americans. The European intellectual scene was much broader than the people who were mentioned in the book. The book also does not deal with the rest of the world: Africa and the anti-colonial struggle are not present at all; Latin America is entirely absent; India is just mentioned in a few sentences; China is non-existent except for the Korean war. So, it is a book that in its geographical, as well as ideological, scope, and the selection of the people whom Nayar excoriates, is limited. Nevertheless, taking these limits into account it deals in a very persuasive manner with a critically important period in western political history and makes us rather fearful of the future.”
Monday, May 08, 2023
This is my guess and Simplicius the thinker thinks so too
“And my prediction is that the AFU offensive will be a stillborn catastrophe, and that U.S. and NATO will be running to China to beg for a peace offer by this fall.
In actuality, I believe that the AFU may never even launch an offensive, that’s why they’re trying to downplay it now, and are slowly conditioning us to downscale it. There’s good chance they will simply continue their little hide and seek, whack a mole games, foreplay style. Recon-by-fire used as a disguise to ‘sell’ momentum and initiative when in reality they have nothing left, particularly as we’ve learned that all the major Western nations have already greatly curtailed their afforded usage of the high-value premiere Western tanks, with secret backdoor deals restricting AFU to using the Challengers/Leopards/etc. only in safe ‘defensive’ roles, so that the precious Western junk can’t be captured.
Well, time is nigh. I guess we’ll find out soon what they really have left, and whether they have the moxie to launch a big one on May 9th as they’ve been threatening for so long to do.” sitrep 5/7/23
Sunday, May 07, 2023
From CoastalAndhra to Liverpool
There were lot of bright people in coastal Andhra when I was growing up in 1940s and 50s. I remember mainly the villages of Gudavalli, Pedapulivarru, Chintayapalem and later Vullipalem and the town of Repalle. There were both Telugu and English books in libraries. I remember the books of Darwin, Faraday, Bertrand Russell in the Repalle Library and later books of Dostoevsky and others in Thullur in private collections. There were teachers who were pundits and one Prabhala Bala Gangadhar Tilak who played Chess for the state and an international bridge player. I had no drive or ambition with so many bright people around but there was always a passion to learn. Now looking back I did some mathematics some of which may remain for a few decades as a few pieces remain still which were from 1970s. I kept wondering what caused it. perhaps it was a trip to Liverpool in 1968. An older colleague M.S. Narasimhan was already famous. He started taking interest since he too grew up in Andhra for a few years and studied in the same college in Madras. He was already in various committees and found that there was a fellowship for UK for which I was eligible. I just had 3-4 papers but no ph.d. He knew I was interested in the work of Terry Wall in Liverpool, sent him my papers and got a letter of support. I did get the fellowship and Terry Wall said what I did was enough for a ph.d. I started loafing around talking to graduate students and some teachers, learning stuff but did not really work. In a conference I met a professor from Yale and started discussing a problem. We made some progress and he invited me to Yale for a semester. Those were the days of Vietnam protests. The mathematical work stopped and I took interest in the politics around and came back to Bombay in 1970 July. Work was sporadic, the atmosphere in the institute friendly and encouraging and social and mathematical interactions with Liverpool continued with Wall inviting for a conference in 1977. Nothing particularly exciting was happening but I was still struggling and trying to learn. Then somehow things started coming together and I found I could think and work on problems sometimes about sixteen hours a day most of it with Liverpool contacts. Somehow Liverpool became the centre of my mathematical and to some extent social world. It is possible that most of this work was futile but I learnt to work for a few years and still can think about mathematics. And it all happened probably due to an accidental trip to Liverpool.
Friday, May 05, 2023
Simplicius the thinker says
Personally, I’m inclined to agree with the statements of this Russian mil-blogger, Zhivoz:
"My prediction regarding the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned out to be exceptionally correct, as well as the motives that drive the scriptwriters of this offensive.
So.
1. The fundamental goal of Ukraine and its allies is not the military defeat of Russia (this is an accompanying goal), but an attempt to bring down the entire system of power in Russia. Not to "remove Putin", namely to bring down the statehood.
2. The offensive, attacks by the Kremlin and other acts, including the choice of a date for May 9 - all these are elements of a complex scenario for the formation of public opinion in Russia unacceptable to the Kremlin, including among the military.
3. For these purposes, all means are used, including the very active work of spies and traitors in Russia itself, the superiority in the information component, Moscow's excessive humanism.
4. Based on these theses, it can be assumed that Kiev should receive serious military successes within a week, exactly by Victory Day. Hybrid attacks on Russian regions will continue, their goal is not so much damage as great humiliation.
5. At the front, in the near future, one can expect a massive missile volley both at troop positions and at rear facilities. And work on the NATO tactics of multiple strikes, infiltration, and so on.https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraines-kremlin-gambit-marks-beginning?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Thursday, May 04, 2023
Wednesday, May 03, 2023
Why everybody needs to learn some economics
The empty basket by Ha-Joon Chang who has new book. I read some of his articles and a couple of books before and am looking forward to it.
Two posts by Peter Woit
Beyond Weird about to the book by Philip Ball. Another on the same topic, this time an article by Philip Ball https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=9405&fbclid=IwAR12o_J--T_KcSUS_2LUfZbax83o1cJCAZTMzkTQXKz4iYbppoiNxxcow-U
Tuesday, May 02, 2023
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