Simplicius the thinker about himself

 Here He confirms that he posted as 'nightvision' in The Saker blog. He is one of the best bloggers on Ukraine SMO and related topics for a while and will now go full time as a blogger. Will his success continue? Somehow, I doubt it. The detachment and objectivity of an outsider will probably be compromised by the obligation to publish regularly and keep his paid subscribers engaged. It will be good for awhile and then I expect it go the way of all flesh. I have stopped following the operation in detail since the end seems clear.

Trade with Russia

 

Scott Ritter’s view on Bakhmut

 

Further possibilities after the fall of Bakhmut from Simplicius the thinker

 He seems to think of this possibility:

“ The final consideration in all this is a question many people have voiced in the comments recently. Which is: how/why does the West think they can actually succeed in ‘freezing’ this conflict at the snap of a finger? What gives them the hubris to believe they can simply call the entire war off at any point of their choosing? 

I’ve mentioned before that the belief stems from the great economic leverage that the West still holds over key Russian allies which the West will attempt to rally for a huge international ‘peace’ coalition. There are a variety of financial/economic instruments they have to do this with. For instance, there’s the threat of imposing new sanctions on everyone from Iran to China. And then there’s also the offer of relieving already-held sanctions, in exchange for pressuring Putin to ‘come to the table’. For instance, the U.S. can wave the postponement of arming Taiwan in front of China’s face, or something along those lines. There are many such potential vectors, and U.S. knows all of them well.”

This seems to ignore the economic pain and unrest in Europe and how long they can take it. as Emmanuel Todd pointed out, there is the problem of replacement levels in Russia in about two years more. Considering that Ukraine is already depleted in terms of population and birthdates, it seems possible that the main war may be over in a year or so.

SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What's Next?

Bakhmut has finally fallen to the Russians

 Bakhmut has finally fallen to the Russians

Further possibilities in Ukraine from ‘The Duran’

 

What happened to European leaders?

Marion Fourcade Michael Reay have written about the transnationalization of economics. The effects seem most severe in Europe where many leaders seem to have similar background and policies. The effects seem less severe in other countries outside Facebook and blogosphere. Here is a post from five years ago by Tim Taylor  Economics:Reviled because it matters

Latest from Douglas Macgregor

 

Sri Sri on Russia

 గర్జించురష్యా:

గాండ్రించురష్యా:

పర్జన్యశంఖంపలికించు రష్యా:

దౌర్జన్యరాజ్యం ధంసించురష్యా:

లేలే, రష్యా:

రారా, రష్యా:

రష్యా: రష్యా: రష్యా: ఓ రష్యా:

వ్యక్తిసతస్సిద్ధ సాతంత్రదాతా:

పతితనిర్గతిక ప్రపంచత్రాతా:

బావికలసర్ణభవన నిర్మాతా:

లేలేలేరష్యా:

రారారారష్యా:

రష్యా: రష్యా: రష్యా: రష్యా

……

https://eemaata.com/em/issues/200705/1104.html

Classical musicians in Hindi films

 The Classical Music Giants contribute to Hindi Cinema – II

See also https://mehfilmeinmeri.wordpress.com/2019/06/03/the-classical-music-giants-contribute-to-hindi-cinema-i/

A military setback for Russia

 Black Day for Russian VVS as 'Special Air Group' Destroyed in Ambush from Simplicius the thinker

And from Military Summary 

And from Brian Berletic

A Saigal song

 You must be rubbing your eyes. I always knew this song as a Saigal solo. This was my favourite among iconic KL Saigal solos. Surely this has to figure in the main section of the best male solos in the year. But listen to the song carefully, someone calls Soordasji and sings the last line Soor Shyam bhatko mat dar dar, kholo man ke dwaare. This is clearly sung by another voice. A comment in the YT link mentions that this line is sung by Saigal’s younger brother Mohinder Saigal who also played the role of Shri Krishna in the film. It is sad that this film is no longer available.

Mousiqar, Toomydan restoration

 

More restorations https://www.youtube.com/@tommydan55/playlists

An Indian sanyasi’s myth-busting account of Tibet

 An Indian sanyasi’s myth-busting account of Tibet by Ajay Kamalakaran

Available online https://dn790003.ca.archive.org/0/items/HistoryOfKailashManasarovarWithMaps/Kailash-Manasarovar%20by%20Swami%20Pranavananda.pdf

Another update, The last stage.

 

Simplicius the thinker on Ukraine counteroffensive

SITREP 5/12/23: Panic! Ukraine Launches Counter-attack 

Against most books

 The case against (most) books by Richard Hanania

Yves Smith and Michael Hudson on dollar hegemony

 Yves Smith comments about Russia having excess rupees. It seems that India is selling refined Russian oil to Europe which may mitigate this. In any case, it may take a few decades and several attempts to reduce dollar hegemony which seems to be happening.

NY Times Is Wrong on Dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson Debunks Paul Krugman’s Dollar Defense

Book Review by Branko Milanovic

 Capitalism Unchained by Krishna Nayar:

“The book is impressive in the amount of detail it marshals, in Nayar’s erudition and his eye for the unusual and the absurd, and his take-no-prisoner style. However, there are also limits: the book deals only with West European countries, and only a select few of them (UK, France, Germany), and just in one segment with Russian pre revolutionary developments. It is also true that the selection of intellectuals that are targeted by Nayar’s often acerbic, and in some cases savage or funny, commentary is limited to the relatively small group of French and British intellectuals, sprinkled, for a good measure,  by a few Americans. The European intellectual scene was much broader than the people who were mentioned in the book. The book also does not deal with the rest of the world: Africa and the anti-colonial struggle are not present at all; Latin America is entirely absent; India is just mentioned in a few sentences; China is non-existent except for the Korean war. So, it is a book that in its geographical, as well as ideological, scope, and the selection of the people whom Nayar excoriates, is limited. Nevertheless, taking these limits into account it deals in a very persuasive manner with a critically important period in western political history and makes us rather fearful of the future.”

This is my guess and Simplicius the thinker thinks so too

 “And my prediction is that the AFU offensive will be a stillborn catastrophe, and that U.S. and NATO will be running to China to beg for a peace offer by this fall. 

In actuality, I believe that the AFU may never even launch an offensive, that’s why they’re trying to downplay it now, and are slowly conditioning us to downscale it. There’s good chance they will simply continue their little hide and seek, whack a mole games, foreplay style. Recon-by-fire used as a disguise to ‘sell’ momentum and initiative when in reality they have nothing left, particularly as we’ve learned that all the major Western nations have already greatly curtailed their afforded usage of the high-value premiere Western tanks, with secret backdoor deals restricting AFU to using the Challengers/Leopards/etc. only in safe ‘defensive’ roles, so that the precious Western junk can’t be captured. 

Well, time is nigh. I guess we’ll find out soon what they really have left, and whether they have the moxie to launch a big one on May 9th as they’ve been threatening for so long to do.” sitrep 5/7/23

From CoastalAndhra to Liverpool

 There were lot of bright people in coastal Andhra when I was growing up in 1940s and 50s. I remember mainly the villages of Gudavalli, Pedapulivarru, Chintayapalem and later Vullipalem and the town of Repalle. There were both Telugu and English books in libraries. I remember the books of Darwin, Faraday, Bertrand Russell in the Repalle Library and later books of Dostoevsky and others in Thullur in private collections. There were teachers who were pundits and one Prabhala Bala Gangadhar Tilak who played Chess for the state and an international bridge player. I had no drive or ambition with so many bright people around but there was always a passion to learn. Now looking back I did some mathematics some of which may remain for a few decades as a few pieces remain still which were from 1970s. I kept wondering what caused it. perhaps it was a trip to Liverpool in 1968. An older colleague M.S. Narasimhan was already famous. He started taking interest since he too grew up in Andhra for a few years and studied in the same college in Madras. He was already in various committees and found that there was a fellowship for UK for which I was eligible. I just had 3-4 papers but no ph.d. He knew I was interested in the work of Terry Wall in Liverpool, sent him my papers and got a letter of support. I did get the fellowship and Terry Wall said what I did was enough for a ph.d. I started loafing around talking to graduate students and some teachers, learning stuff but did not really work. In a conference I met a professor from Yale and started discussing a problem. We made some progress and he invited me to Yale for a semester. Those were the days of Vietnam protests. The mathematical work stopped and I took interest in the politics around and came back to Bombay in 1970 July. Work was sporadic, the atmosphere in the institute friendly and encouraging and social and mathematical interactions with Liverpool continued with Wall inviting for a conference in 1977. Nothing particularly exciting was happening but I was still struggling and trying to learn. Then somehow things started coming together and I found I could think and work on problems sometimes about sixteen hours a day most of it with Liverpool contacts. Somehow Liverpool became the centre of my mathematical and to some extent social world. It is possible that most of this work was futile but I learnt to work for a few years and still can think about mathematics. And it all happened probably due to an accidental trip to Liverpool.

From Simplicius on May 6

 https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/emergency-evacuation-of-zaporozhye?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Simplicius the thinker says

 Personally, I’m inclined to agree with the statements of this Russian mil-blogger, Zhivoz: 

"My prediction regarding the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned out to be exceptionally correct, as well as the motives that drive the scriptwriters of this offensive.

So.

1. The fundamental goal of Ukraine and its allies is not the military defeat of Russia (this is an accompanying goal), but an attempt to bring down the entire system of power in Russia. Not to "remove Putin", namely to bring down the statehood.

2. The offensive, attacks by the Kremlin and other acts, including the choice of a date for May 9 - all these are elements of a complex scenario for the formation of public opinion in Russia unacceptable to the Kremlin, including among the military.

3. For these purposes, all means are used, including the very active work of spies and traitors in Russia itself, the superiority in the information component, Moscow's excessive humanism.

4. Based on these theses, it can be assumed that Kiev should receive serious military successes within a week, exactly by Victory Day. Hybrid attacks on Russian regions will continue, their goal is not so much damage as great humiliation.

5. At the front, in the near future, one can expect a massive missile volley both at troop positions and at rear facilities. And work on the NATO tactics of multiple strikes, infiltration, and so on.https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraines-kremlin-gambit-marks-beginning?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Ukranion offensive

 

Or this https://www.rt.com/russia/575688-gur-agents-crimea-fsb/

Why everybody needs to learn some economics

 The empty basket by Ha-Joon Chang who has new book. I read some of his articles and a couple of books before and am looking forward to it.

Two posts by Peter Woit

 Beyond Weird about to the book by Philip Ball. Another on the same topic, this time an article by Philip Ball https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=9405&fbclid=IwAR12o_J--T_KcSUS_2LUfZbax83o1cJCAZTMzkTQXKz4iYbppoiNxxcow-U

Ukraine will now become a ‘time bomb’ as it arms itself for a future clash that would endanger mankind itself

 Prophetic 1992 Interview with Putin Mentor Anatoly Sobchak Predicts Existential Clash

The evolution of neocons according to Ron Unz

 https://www.unz.com/runz/the-neocons-and-their-rise-to-power/

China play in Ukraine

 What China is really playing at in Ukraine by Pepe Escobar

Some remarks by Chomsky on Ukraine

 Noam Chomsky: Russia is fighting more humanely than the US did in Iraq

Update from Simplicius the thinker

 SITREP 5/1/23: Massive Missile Strikes Rock Ukraine

United States will either devolve into civil war or secession by the year 2030, saysSimplicius the thinker

 Seems a bit far fetched to me.On secession and civil war. The are also predictions by Peter Turchin and others.

The World Doesn’t Work That Way Anymore

From Alaistar Crooke Excerpt:

“ The Anglo-American approach is premised on the basis that the ultimate measure of a society is its level of consumption. In the long run however, List argued, a society's well-being and its overall wealth are determined not by what the society can buy, but by what it can make (i.e. value arising from a real, self-sufficient economy). The German school argued that emphasizing consumption would eventually be self-defeating; it would bias the system away from wealth creation, and ultimately make it impossible to consume as much, or to employ so many.

List was prescient. This is the flaw so clearly now exposed in the Anglo model: the original failing now aggravated by massive financialization -- a process that has led to the building of an inverted pyramid of derivative financial ‘products’ which has sucked the oxygen from the manufacture of real output.  Self-reliance erodes, and a shrinking base of real wealth creation supports ever-smaller numbers in adequately-paid employment.”

Yeltsin first meeting with Putin

 When we met for the first time, why did Putin conquer Yeltsin? "This man must go to Moscow!"

Latest from Simplicius the thinker

 Supreme EUCOM Commander Gives Eye-Opening

A brief review of ‘Underground Empire’

 Farrell and Newman are experts in their field, but this book will fail to convince many readers.

I think that is what we have been seeing in the recent conflicts.

A review of a book by Cory Doctorow

“Red Team Blues” and the As-You-Know-Bob problem

Yalavarthi Nayudamma

 

The above in Telugu. Here is one Englsh https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/019/10/0887-0899

I saw him oncevon the main road of Pedapulivarru. He already was well known in those parts.

Conversation with Alastair Crooke

 

Biden announces re-election bid

 

Update in indo-Russian relations from Bhadrakumar

 Pivotal moment in India-Russia relations

A discussion of lack of political parties in Europe with Václav Klaus

 

S.Janaki about her career

 She is now 85.

Craig Roberts on Ukraine, a different view from Scott Ritter

 

The collapse of antiquity, anew book by Michael Hudson

 Danny Haiphong and Michael Hudson Discuss The Collapse of Antiquity, the Bank Panic,

Next China?

 

Neocons seem to have given up on Ukraine, tried a bit in Sudan but the main goal seems to be to tame China.

Update from Simplicius the thinker

 He expects that the Ukraine war may go on until 2030.

SITREP 4/18/23: Dark Clouds Roll In, As Things Heat Up

How do planes fly?

 No One Can Explain Why Planes Stay in the Air

Debt of poor countries

How China Is Breaking The Colonial Effects Of Western LendingBased on this discussion Of Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson

Russia-India Strategic Partnership w/ Ambassador Venkatesh Varma, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

 

Latest from Simplicius the thinker

 https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-41223-offensiveor-collapse

The effect of sanctions on the Russian economy

 https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/04/james-k-galbraith-the-gift-of-sanctions-an-analysis-of-assessments-of-the-russian-economy-2022-2023.html

Impact of fiscal vs monetary policies in Australia

 And building industry collapses

Another view of Ukraine counteroffensive from ‘historylegends’

 

And a recent video https://youtu.be/tUy17lrscrc

Military Summary on Bakhmut and other fights on the front

 

Big Serge on Pentagon leaks

 Leak Biopsy

Scott Ritter on Wagner

 

Nato Plans for Ukraine Leaked

MAJOR: Nato Plans for Ukraine Leaked 

“As many of you have likely heard, a major leak from U.S. DOD headquarters has just occurred the day before yesterday. Initially, I wasn’t going to cover it because there was a strong chance it could be fake, and it’s not worth the effort of a full deep-dive for a document of questionable origin/validity. 

However, now the Pentagram has confirmed the validity of the documents, as they’re now panickedly trying to scrub the internet of them….

Some concluding thoughts to wrap it up: 

My biggest takeaway from it all, is that the AFU’s supposed ‘coming offensive’ is truly a last hurrah, even more than we imagined. The reason is twofold: 

1. Firstly, their numbers in general appear much lower in every regard. Not only is the manpower extremely low, but the Western equipment numbers are incredibly paltry compared to what was originally promised long ago. 

2. And then, the second biggest story is how bad the shape of their AD missile stockpiles appear to be. With the high rate of consumption, they appear to be on the verge of complete defenselessness. 

The story this paints is one of a last ditch hurrah. Firstly, it’s clear that the ‘main’ offensive cannot happen until early May at the earliest, because that’s when the last needed tank deliveries were scheduled for, according to these documents.L”

The leaks may be legitimate but not completely accurate says https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LP3C7JawnA

Some funny Bollywood songs

 The secret ingredient of funny Bollywood songs

Some questions and answers with Scott Ritter, some about Israel

 

Spring offensive in western Ukraine?

 

Moving fast towards a multipolar world

 

Update from Scott Ritter on Bakhmut, spring offensive and Wagner outfit

 

Simplicius on the Russian economy

 The Truth About Russia's Economic Power: Is It Really as Small and Weak as the West Claims?

GrayZone on the Putin arrest warrant

 ICC’s Putin arrest warrant based on State Dept-funded report that debunked itself

Moves away from US dollar

 

From Simplicius

Bakhmut pincer tightens 

James K Galbraith on bank failures

 What Elizabeth Warren, Larry Summers, and Paul Krugman All Got Wrong About SVB

The india connection

 

Alex Christoforou on similar topics as Simplicius below

 

Simplicius on Legacy Media

 Legacy Media is an Antiquated, Obsolete Relic

Mines, Depleted Uranium, and Important Addendums From Simplicius

 Mines, Depleted Uranium, and Important Addendums

Interview with Kanwal Sibal

 Why India should take the Russia-China summit in its stride

Gilbert describes a Putin interview

 Journalist Pavel Zarubin’s interview with Vladimir Putin, 25 March 2023

"What's Coming IS WORSE THAN A WW3, THIS IS SERIOUS!"

 

Scott Ritter answers some questions

 

Simplicius on the Ukraine counter offensive

SITREP 3/24/23: Offensive Paranoia! 

Scott Ritter on the Ukraine counter offensive around Bakhmut

 

Eurasian integration

 Eurasian Integration Including Iran Proceeds Despite US “Maximum Pressure” Campaign

Collapses in Australia

As more Australian businesses go under, there are warnings that the past six months is only the beginning with things set to get worse. 

A credit creation theory of banking

 Yves here. This is deceptively important post. We’ve regularly mentioned that mainstream economists and the monetary economists at the Fed and presumably many other central banks adhere to the “loanable funds” theory of investment and lending. That model posits that loans come from a pre-existing pool of savings. The credit view, which the Bank of England, and even Greenspan and Bernanke have effectively admitted is how things really work, is that banks create loans out of thin air, and simultaneously, the related deposit. The check on this process is the cost of money (the central bank’s policy rate). This model, unlike the loanable funds story, explains how central bank policy influences credit and money supply growth.

How Monetary Policy Affects Bank Lending and Financial Stability: A ‘Credit Creation Theory of Banking’ Explanation

Depleted uranium shells for Ukraine?

 

Iraq and the Pathologies of Primacy

 Iraq and the Pathologies of Primacy by Stephen Wertheim 

SITREP 3/19/23: AND Weekend Mailbag Answers Extravaganza

 From Simplicius https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-31923-and-weekend-mailbag

Simplicius on the age of regression

 Age of Regression is upon us

No reverse gear

 From ‘The Duran’ 

Simplicius answers some questions

 He seems to be one of the better commenters around. But nobody is perfect and their interest in these problems waxes and wanes.

Saturday Reader's Mailbag Extravaganza - (3/11/23) - Answers

Bhadrakumar on the Afghan situation

 Foreign devils on the road to Afghanistan

Gilbert Doctorow on the current situation in Ukraine and Europe

The Washington scenario in phase two is to fight Russia to the last European 

Already people are taking about post-Ukraine word

 This fromDouglas McGregor 

Bhadrakumar on Saudi-Iran rapprochement

 In Indian Punchline “ The agreement announced on Friday in Beijing regarding the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the reopening of their embassies is a historic event. It goes way beyond an issue of Saudi-Iranian relations. China’s mediation signifies that we are witnessing a profound shift of the tectonic plates in the geopolitics of the 21st century. ”

Alistair Crooke on western intelligence institutions

 HOW COULD WESTERN INTELLIGENCE HAVE GOT IT WRONG, AGAIN? THEY DIDN’T. THEY HAD OTHER PURPOSES

An update from Douglas Mcgregor

 

Another emerging confrontation in Sahel

 Coups, Chaos, and the Crumbling of the Francafique: the Widening War between East and West in Africa’s Sahel

Another Scott Ritter interview on the overall picture

 

A reality check for Modi Govt’s G20 ambitions

 A reality check for Modi Govt’s G20 ambitions

“A plausible explanation could be that after being threatened with a regime change orchestrated by the western intelligence — starting with the BBC documentary, followed by the Hindenburg report, and culminating in George Soros’s prognosis of a “democratic revival” in India — the ruling elite panicked.”

And from ‘the Duran’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfrTlBvstOw

Here is one from Big Serge, one of the best articles I have seen so far

 Russo-Ukrainian War: Schrodinger’s Offensive

Bhadrakumar on Adani

 Reports of Adani’s eclipse are greatly exaggerated

Changing face of war from Simplicius

 Changing face of war

Ukraine update