Rice supplies in the short term

fromCenter for Global Development :
"With India having banned all non-Basmati exports and Vietnam having largely withdrawn as a seller from the export market for now, ideally the new rice supplies must come from a non-traditional source. Fortunately, two such sources are available: rice stocks in Japan and China. In addition, Thailand’s new government is sitting on almost 2 million tons which it has been husbanding.

Japan Uses High Quality Imported Rice as Animal Feed

Because of its WTO commitments under the Uruguay Round Agreement, Japan imports a
substantial amount of medium-grain rice from the U.S. and long-grain rice from Thailand and Vietnam. Tokyo, however, seeks to keep most of this rice away from Japanese consumers (perhaps fearing a realization that the taste of foreign indica rice is not so bad and a bargain compared to the $3,900-per-ton locally-produced short-grain varieties of japonica rice). But under WTO rules, the government cannot re-export the rice, except in relatively limited quantities as grant aid. So the Japanese government simply stores its imported rice until the quality deteriorates to the point that it is suitable only as livestock feed and sells it to domestic
livestock operators. Last year about 400,000 tons of rice were disposed of in this manner at a huge budget loss, displacing an equal quantity of corn exports from the U.S. and thus displeasing another constituency, the U.S. corn growers.

Japan currently has over 1.5 million tons of this rice in storage, roughly 900,000 tons of U.S. medium-grain rice and 600,000 tons of long-grain rice from Thailand and Vietnam. Most of this rice is in good condition, and is incurring large storage charges. Japan would be very happy to dispose of this rice to the world market, but it cannot do so without U.S. acquiescence.(Technically, Thailand and Vietnam will also need to give approval for rice supplies originally imported from their countries to be released to world markets.)"
The paper also discusses rice stocka in China and Thailand and says "What’s needed now is a sudden surge of unexpected supplies to prick the speculative bubble and to reassure anxious countries and poor people around the world that there is indeed enough rice for everybody. An agreement by Washington and Tokyo for Japan to release its 1.5 million tons of unwanted rice stocks is the key to piercing this bubble. It would bring prices down immediately, averting hunger, malnutrition, and increased mortality among poor people in Asia. it would make it easier for China and Thailand to do the right thing and release some of their own surplus rice stocks as well. Now is the time for U.S. policymakers to exercise leadership by making it clear, through diplomatic channels and other means, that the United States understands the importance of stable rice prices to poor people and is prepared to do what it takes to help. After all, high-quality American rice should be fed to people, not pigs."
P.S. (17th May)Apparently, the above research from CGDEV had some effect. FromRice Prices Fall After Congressional Hearings But Crisis Not Over Yet:
"...but the mere mention of Japan exporting its stocks led some speculators to dump their contracts in Chicago yesterday and today. Futures contracts for July rice ended limit down, or 75 cents lower yesterday and fell by a $1.05 to $20.44/100 lbs as the limit was expanded to $1.15. Also, Thai wholesale prices, which had been rising, fell today by $16 to $841-843 per ton.

Towards the end of the Wednesday, an unnamed USTR official was quoted as saying that the U.S. had no problem with Japan exporting its rice, but there was some ambiguity as there was also a call for the U.S. and Japan to "coordinate" their food aid efforts over the coming weeks. The ambiguity—and the lack of an official announcement that the sales would proceed--made some rice trade-watchers suspect that this thing may not be over yet.

One thing is clear: sudden and unexpected exposure to the limelight is prodding the bureaucracy in both Japan and Washington into action, and is already taking some of the speculative steam out of the market -- both of which are good news for poor people who depend on rice to survive."