Monday, May 30, 2022
Sunday, May 29, 2022
NATO, Fulda Gap and all that
The War Nerd: NATO, A Memoir by Gary Brecher, via Naked Capitalism with an introduction by Yvette Smith. Long read.
See also the comments. The level of some of the comments seems better than the article.
Saturday, May 28, 2022
More of Geetanjali Shree
From Gautam Menon’s wall with links to her article in the post and comments https://www.facebook.com/100009260698883/posts/pfbid02k43NcYGVMUZX7AS7pJFovPuAPuPm8iv9TZzTgYkACcwKnBYiZF4nmhrM4cVCmNeLl/
Competition and variety
Competition via varietyfrom Tim Taylor of Conversable Economist “ A final issue is called the “paradox of choice,” which is the idea that consumers who are overloaded by choices may be less happy with their ultimate choice, because of a fear that they missed out on something better, or may even decide to shy away from buying at all. There is limited evidence of this happening in some contexts. For example, one study looked at restaurant delivery platform that kept adding more options. Up to some point, the additional options brought in more business; beyond that point, additional options seemed to discourage possible consumers and brought in less business. But from a broad perspective, the appetite for additional variety in consumer packaged goods seems to be very strong, and so the pattern of large firms using variety to compete within narrow categories of products seems likely to continue.”
Friday, May 27, 2022
Thursday, May 26, 2022
Some Ukraine related links
The Secret American Plan to Make Russia Great Again by Dmitry Orlov. In one of the comments, he says “ I struggle to see the Deep State as an embodyment of that mystical power that strives to do evil but because it is flawed it only succeeds in thwarting its own purpose. It seems more likely that we are dealing with a system that by its design disincentivizes examining the consequences of policies.”
Alexander Mercouris reviews the current situation, a video of over 45 minutes long.
The daily situation on the front is given in several videos of Defence Politics Asia. Here is One of the shorter videos
My impression so far is that Russia is doing ok on the military and economic fronts, USA is fighting hard to maintain its hegemony short of going to war, Europe and various other countries are suffering shortages and it is not clear how long they can take it. But things may suddenly change.
Another with a more detailed video https://sonar21.com/lets-talk-game-changers-in-ukraine-and-the-future/
Nuland -Pyatt Tape
Nuland-Pyatt Tape Removed From YouTube After 8 Years from Consortium News. Some versions still available on YouTube,
Wednesday, May 25, 2022
Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Monday, May 23, 2022
What retired professors can do
https://www.thebetterindia.com/251716/251716mantha-ram-murthy-bvk-college-biodiversity-park-visakhapatnam-andhra-pradesh-hospital-waste-trees-plants-butterflies-flora-and-fauna-dolphin-nature-conservation-society-gop94/ “ Retd Professor Turns 3-Acre Waste Ground Green & Biodiverse, With 2000 Plant Species”
Sunday, May 22, 2022
Saturday, May 21, 2022
Michael Hudson on the current economic war
Michael Hudson on the Ongoing Economic War via Naked Capitalism, originally from RT. Another transcript slightly different from the above http://thesaker.is/michael-hudson-interview-with-rt-transcript/
Friday, May 20, 2022
Ed Yong about Monkeypox
So, Have You Heard About Monkeypox? ‘ A new viral outbreak is testing whether the world has learned anything from COVID.’
Another Tepe
Is an unknown, extraordinarily ancient civilisation buried under eastern Turkey?
“ Virtually all that we can now see of Karahan Tepe has been skilfully unearthed the last two years, with remarkable ease (for reasons which we will come back to later). And although there is much more to summon from the grave, what it is already teaching us is mind stretching. Taken together with its age, complexity, sophistication, and its deep, resonant mysteriousness, and its many sister sites now being unearthed across the Harran Plains – collectively known as the Tas Tepeler, or the ‘stone hills’ – these carved, ochre-red rocks, so silent, brooding, and watchful in the hard whirring breezes of the semi-desert, constitute what might just be the greatest archaeological revelation in the history of humankind.”
Thursday, May 19, 2022
More Ukrainians surrender in Mariupol
From RT” The ICRC said it “registered hundreds of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs)” at Azovstal and that the process was still underway. The organization is compiling lists and recording personal details of the captives to track them while they remain in custody and to “help them keep in touch with their families.””
Kakrana school
I visited the school in November 2016 with Rahul, his wife Subhadra and Swapan Bhattacharjee. I have been contributing a bit and hope to continue.
Swapan Bhattacharjee writes:RANI KAJAL JEEVAN SHALA IS GETTING A NEW LIFE FROM THIS ACADEMIC YEAR
Rahul has taken over the administration and development plans, implementing the plans in full earnest . This video is a record of the development of a sports ground on the top of a hillock within the campus of Rani Kajal Jeevan Shala in Kakrana village of Alirajpur district in Madhya Pradesh. This is an Adiwashi village, the school is residential. This is vacation time, only teachers are present in their quarters in the campus now.
The plan, as Rahul tells, is to make the school self sufficient within three years.
It means, the water which normally flows downhill in rain will have to be arrested by a series of 'Bandhs'. Six bandhs are already placed along the slop of the hill. It will allow the plain land to be used for growing vegetables through out the year. The other aspect is the grains would be collected from all the students for their consumption throughout the academic year.
This video is a record of the development till 9th May 2022, with wire fencing and flattening the top of the hill to construct a sports complex and building a computer center for internet facility. On the ground level there is no internet signal available. The magnificent view on all sides is evident in this video even in the height of summer 43 C is the maximum temperature today.
Glazyev on economic development of Russia
A discussion in http://thesaker.is/open-thread-for-today-2/
From Glazyev for thinking people:
Glazyev’s precise critique of the Russian Central Bank applies exactly to the FED, City of London, ECB. This is what terrifies Yellin, Lagarde, BoJo.
And Glazyev knows full well.
After the Bail-out Fiasco of 2008 with Bush and Obama stealing tax and Germany doing double duty, look at EUropeans! Russia has also this very EUropean problem, with 1 HUGE difference : China. China is thus TARGET #1 because it dealt with the Banks.
We have FDR’s Glass-Steagall 1934 Bank Separation Law, repealed in 1999 by Clinton under the Lewinsky scandal.Thank you very, very much for this, it substanciates my fears, but what I don’t understand is why the Russian leadership does not see this (Glazyev’s positions are well known, and if even I understand the truth of his point surely the Russian leadeship understands much better), or if they see it why do they not act on it?
I’m a westerner and I see all these systemic problems in my own country (de-industrialisation, financiarisation, decrease in investment for fundamental scientific research, cuts in education, creeping heathcare privatisation, mass propaganda…). I’ve made my peace with it because I understand that our leadership is terminaly corrupted and actively works against the general interest – and this cannot change, because of the motives and moral principles of those in power.
The question that baffles me is why does Russia not embark on Glazyev’s path, China has spectacularly demonstated how effective it is as a direction for further economic development and prosperity?
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
Alexander Mercouris on Mariupol
https://youtu.be/uDecnQxhDnk
A comment from Michael Hudson
on May 17, 2022 · at 2:20 pm EST/EDT
I suspect that the withdrawal from the WHO is a result of what the Russians discovered in America’s biowarfare laboratories in Ukraine. WHO complicity requires Russia to withdraw in order to emphasize its accusations about how WHO has been captured by U.S. neocons. How could Russia condemn the WTO if it still remained part of this?
The withdrawal from the WTO does indeed suggest that Russia is joining with the SCO to create a new, parallel set of institutions to the WTO, IMF and World Bank so as to break free from US neoliberal control.
This is part of creating a new multipolar economic order, of which the current Flight for Control of Europe is merely the opening front.
In https://thesaker.is/sitrep-russia/
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
An interview with Adorno
https://cominsitu.wordpress.com/2015/09/01/a-conversation-with-theodor-w-adorno-spiegel-1969/?fbclid=IwAR3h1tUg9Funzd98vaNaYhEUcmN5FedLRCOLauvNpUwZ06-2LMfpHx2O1_4Three weeks before his death. The interview itself is short; most of the articles is notes.
Gilbert Doctorow on village life in current Russia
“ Right now the key question is whether it is still too cool to plant the potatoes. When the birch trees are blooming, like now, is the right time to plant says one neighbor. No, the real test is to lower your trousers and plant your butt on the soil; if it feels cold, wait a while. So much for folk wisdom… “ from Life in the village
Friday, May 13, 2022
Reviews of a recent book of Emmanuel Todd
Emmanuel Todd’s Lineages of Modernity by Ricardo Duchesne . There are interesting bits in the book but it seemed too sweeping and I could not complete reading it.
An earlier review by F.Roger Delvin which seems more readable.
Cory Doctorow on How Weblogging Made His Brain What It Is Today
“Cory Doctorow: The Memex Method. When Your Commonplace Book Is a Public Database: ‘The very act of recording your actions and impressions is itself powerfully mnemonic…. The genius of the blog was… in the publishing. The act of making your log-file public requires a rigor that keeping personal notes does not…. Repeated acts of public description adds each idea to a supersaturated, subconscious solution of fragmentary elements that have the potential to become something bigger. Every now and again, a few of these fragments will stick to each other and nucleate…. When one of those nucleation events occurs, the full-text search and tag-based retrieval tools built into Wordpress allow me to bring up everything I’ve ever written on the subject…. The availability of a deep, digital, searchable, published and public archive of my thoughts turns habits that would otherwise be time-wasters—or even harmful—into something valuable…. Systematically reviewing your older work to find the patterns in where you got it wrong (and right!) is hugely beneficial—it’s a useful process of introspection that makes it easier to spot and avoid your own pitfalls…. Two decades in, I can safely say that this community of peers, mentors, sounding boards, protégés, friends, combatants and interlocutors is more useful to me as a writer and a person than the even the prodigious instrumental benefits that blogging brings to my composition process… ”
Arianna Wright Rosenbluth
“Maybe we should’ve called it Arianna” by Andrew Gellman on Metropolis Algorithm
John Helmer an exile from Russia
Exile “ In my case I’ve been driven into exile more than once. The current one is lasting the longest. This is the one from Moscow, which began with my expulsion by the Foreign Ministry on September 28, 2010. The official sentence is Article 27(1) of the law No. 114-FZ — “necessary for the purposes of defence capability or security of the state, or public order, or protection of health of the population.” The reason, a foreign ministry official told an immigration service official when they didn’t know they were being overheard, was: “Helmer writes bad things about Russia.””
As one commenter said “ This seems so strange to me. That Helmer, who has done so much to set the facts straight, usually in favor of Russia and revealing the depth of American propaganda being used, that Helmer should be “exiled” in any way. I’ve always thought that nostalgia was an effect of our biological clock. That we became nostalgic for our youth just as we were no longer young. But being a political exile must be something different. Maybe because ideas don’t really decay. Nor facts. Interesting tidbit about the US putting a nuclear missile base in Deveselu, just west of Constanta, capable of demolishing southern Russia.”
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Scott Ritter ‘The Greatest Generation’
The Greatest Generation “This is a letter by Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer. It was published on RT as “An Open Letter To The American People – as Russia celebrates its WW2 victory over the Nazis”, but since RT is mostly banned in the west, I’ll post it here. It absolutely deserves that.” says Raúl Ilargi Meijer. But it is available in Australia:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
A prescient speech by George W.Bush from 1991
The vindication of George H W Bush “not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism. They will not aid those who promote a suicidal nationalism based upon ethnic hatred.”
Monday, May 09, 2022
Saturday, May 07, 2022
Friday, May 06, 2022
On China’s economy
Gulzar Natarajan summarises the problems which relate the slowdown of Chinese economy to its COVID policies: China update - The Bad Emperor problem hastens even as economic prospects dim
Michael Pettit sees more familiar structural problems The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow
“ Once it is recognized that China’s surging debt burden is a function of nonproductive investment, and that this investment must eventually be curtailed, it turns out that there are a limited number of ways the economy can continue growing. Any economy broadly speaking has only three sources of demand that can drive growth: consumption, investment, and trade surpluses. For that reason, there are basically five paths that China’s economy could take going forward.
- China can stay on its current path and keep letting large amounts of nonproductive investment continue driving the country’s debt burden up indefinitely
- China can reduce the large amount of nonproductive investment on which it relies to drive growth and replace it with productive investment in forms like new technology
- China can reduce the large amount of nonproductive investment on which it relies to drive growth and replace it with rising consumption
- China can reduce the large amount of nonproductive investment on which it relies to drive growth and replace it with a growing trade surplus
- China can reduce the large amount of nonproductive investment on which it relies to drive growth and replace it with nothing, in which case growth would necessarily slow sharply
Wednesday, May 04, 2022
Michael Hudson with Katie Halper and Aaron Mate transcript
portion of the Michael Hudson podcast with Katie Halper and Aaron Maté ‘ The transcript below is only of the portion of the Michael Hudson podcast with Katie Halper and Aaron Maté that is outside their paywall, but Michael assures me that the rest was almost entirely a personal chat. ’ says Yves Smith.
Tuesday, May 03, 2022
An interesting article by Jonathan Haidt
WHY THE PAST 10 YEARS OF AMERICAN LIFE HAVE BEEN UNIQUELY STUPID
A summary by Gulzar Natarajan “ A few days back Jonathan Haidt wrote what he calls his most important essay in The Atlantic. It's a must read in terms of a compelling diagnosis of several disturbing symptoms arising from the pervasiveness of social media that we see in societies across the world.”
Latest report from Gilbert Doctorow
America’s ideological blinkers and the Ukraine war
“ First, the Russian ‘special military operation’ is a millstone that grinds slowly but grinds fine. It is working. The Russians are crushing the Ukrainian forces. It is improbable that any amount of deliveries of foreign equipment to Kiev can make a difference on the outcome of this conflict. Indeed, while critics of the US-led intervention in the conflict claim, correctly, that the deliveries are drawing out the war by encouraging Kiev to fight on, it is also true that the Russians have no problem with that: the longer it goes on, the more territory they can seize, with a view to controlling and ultimately annexing the entire Black Sea littoral. They would thereby ensure that what survives of the Ukrainian state can never again pose a military threat to Russia, with or without NATO help.
Second, the Ukrainian army indeed has NATO trained officers and skilled professionals who may be admirable fighters, as the Western media insist. But it also has a lot of cannon fodder. By cannon fodder I mean overaged recruits dragooned into the forces and also volunteers who are useless to any modern military and are no longer trainable. Most of the prisoners of war shown on Russian television were in their late 50s and even late 60s; they had no prior military experience. One of the latter, with haggard face and scraggly beard down to his chest was asked why he enlisted to fight. The answer came back: “There was no work. So I signed up just to make some money.” After seeing their mates shot dead, is it any wonder that such soldiers raise their arms to surrender at the first opportunity?
The question not being asked is where are all the young and able Ukrainian males? How have they evaded the draft? Given the widely acknowledged corruption in Ukrainian government and society, would it not be strange if some just buy their way out of the war? Are they among the 5 million Ukrainians who have gone abroad since the start of the hostilities? Are they the ones now driving their high priced Mercedes with Ukrainian license plates around the streets of Hamburg? Who in the West records this or really cares about it?”
From another source https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1520446668331790337.html
Monday, May 02, 2022
Interview with a Ukrainian academic Olga Bashya
UKRAINE: The Real Zelensky from Consortium News.
An excerpt:
“ What about neoliberal reforms initiated by Zelensky? You can judge on their popularity by opinion polls – up to 72 percent of Ukrainians did not support his land reform, the flagship of Zelensky’s neoliberal program. After his party approved it despite people’s indignation, Zelensky’s rating fell from 73 percent in Spring 2019 to 23 percent in January 2022. The reason is simple: a deep sense of betrayal.
In his unofficial election platform — the show “Servant of the People” — Zelesnky-Holoborodko [Holoborodko was Zelensky’s character in the television show – NB] promised that if he could rule the country for just one week, he would “make the teacher live as the president, and the president live as the teacher.” To put it mildly, this promise was not fulfilled. People realized that they were duped once again — the reforms have been carried out in the interests of not Ukrainians but global capital.”
The forecast for the development of the Russian economy from the Ministry of Economic Development strikes not with its pessimism, but with the lack of a concept and development of a new paradigm of economic development.
The scenario for the Russian economy is discouraging: a 7.8% fall in GDP in 2022, a continued fall of 0.7% in 2023, and growth in 2024 and 2025 of only 3.2% and 2.6%, which by 2025 will not make it possible to compensate for the failure of 2022. In fact, a return economy to the levels of 2008 by 2024. The collapse of investments by 20% in 2022, their freezing at the bottom in 2023 (+0.3% by 2022), the growth of unemployment from 4.8% current to 6.7% in 2022 and stabilization at this level in 2023.
Forecasts and development scenarios of the Ministry of Economic Development are submitted to the government and sent to the regions for the formation of budgets and state economic policy. What follows from the MED forecast?
According to the plans, there will be no launch of the investment cycle, there will be no mobilization development, there will be no New Economic Policy (NEP). Otherwise, they would not have assumed an increase in unemployment where it cannot be, by definition, and would not have put minus 20% of investments in two years by 2021. As part of a mobilization spurt, there is always a shortage of personnel, because. points of growth and development multiply exponentially, and the investment cycle is a natural process of survival and transformation.
The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is consistent with the recent forecast from the Central Bank. Passive position, conservation of the current state (expectation of natural adaptation of the economy to external challenges), adjustment to current realities and situational maneuvers to extinguish the sources of “economic fire”, and not to prevent the risk of “fire” itself.
In other words, the Central Bank and the economic bloc are still operating within the framework of the old paradigm, where the imperative of faith in the free hand of the market (a typical liberal concept), inflation targeting at any cost, the formation of a “financial safety cushion” through the distribution of accumulated income into reserves (mainly unfriendly countries) operates .
The latter seems to have been sorted out, moreover, by the hands of “Western partners”, when, having created a zone of toxicity of reserve currencies, the United States and Europe are forcibly squeezing the Russian government out of these assets. Although, judging by half of the distribution of gold reserves in toxic assets, ours were in illusions to the last. But it is good that they have now realized that the doctrinal setting of oversaturation of reserves at the cost of limiting current development is a dead end. Reserves still cannot be used in critical situations, and therefore there is no point in accumulating them.
Inflation targeting under the past paradigm of medium-term price stability in the current circumstances is a senseless and harmful initiative. It is absolutely normal and natural in the conditions of economic restructuring to fix high inflation as a natural reaction of the economy to eliminate inefficiency, adjust the economy to new price proportions and search for alternative macro-financial balances. In other words, on a trajectory of fragmented and impulsive development, increased inflation is a sign of a healthy economy that is establishing new equilibrium factors.
The worst thing is faith in the free hand of the market in the conditions of perestroika. Just like an echo from the 90s. The country is facing fundamental challenges that modern Russia has not yet known, we are at a civilizational break in the phase of tectonic transformation of the world economic and geopolitical space.
Three months have passed since the NWO, the economy is partially paralyzed by the rupture of trade, financial and logistical ties with the outside world. Where the hell is NEP 2022 from the government? Three months is enough time to understand what reality we are in. In the current conditions, it is absolutely necessary to strengthen the role of the state, at least at an early stage, at the starting point. But so far we are seeing situational maneuvers to plug holes in the ship’s hull, while it is necessary to act ahead of schedule.
There is a feeling that the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank are not fully aware of what they predict. What kind of unemployment can we talk about in the face of the scale of the challenges facing the country? What kind of investment collapse in 2022 and investment paralysis in 2023 can we talk about when the country is on the verge of virtually unlimited investment projects?
The economic bloc and the Central Bank are still stuck in 2021, when we are already in a new reality. It’s time to wake up, otherwise, given the concentration and scale of economic and geopolitical challenges, the country will not be able to withstand the burden of accumulated problems and accumulated imbalances. An attempt to revive past patterns of response to crisis processes is not relevant in the context of the new “post-reality” that took shape after February 24th.
Objectively speaking, there is more than enough space in the country for development on the trajectory of liberation from the oppression of transnational corporations. According to my recent calculations, in Russia, foreign companies (the share of non-residents is over 50%) formed about 16% of revenue, 18% of gross value added, about 20-21% of net profit and provided employment for 13% of those employed in the economy for a group of companies whose revenue exceeds 20 billion rubles Almost 90% of these companies are from the list of unfriendly countries.
Many of them leave under the pressure of stupidity and political circumstances. It’s not bad. Previously, there was a problem of struggle for the sales market, which were captured by TNCs through the institution of lobbying. Now all this riffraff is gone. Now huge niches have been vacated in the country, which can and should be occupied by national companies.
Why am I so critical of government economic decisions?
First, lack of time. Their forecast suggests that they decided to sit out for a couple of years until everything resolves itself. This does not happen, nothing is absorbed in the economy without critical consequences. We don’t have two years, not one year, not even one month. It was necessary to act already yesterday. There are a lot of unresolved problems.
Secondly, private business alone will not be able to solve a complex of infrastructural, organizational, technological and financial problems. We need a tough and strong-willed hand of the state, which will create a base for start-up growth, which in the future will be intercepted by private business. It’s time to tie up with these liberal games in the free market. The backbone of sustainable long-term development is formed only through a vertically integrated economy and centralized planning. It’s been in the UK, it’s been in the US and it’s happening in China. Fairy tales about the free hand of the market for fools.
Thirdly, remember that development is impossible without innovations and technologies, and they, in turn, are impossible without science. From 2014 to 2021, investment in research and development (both private and public) declined absolutely dramatically – by 21% in real terms. From 2% in GVA in 2014, the share has decreased to 1.46% by 2021. Yes, there is an island of stability in the form of IT and related industries – this is wonderful, but industrialization cannot be done without technology. China understood this in 2003 and actively invested in science. It’s time for us to understand.
One can try to replace critical imports from West to East. But this is an intermediate task. Import substitution and localization of production chains are impossible without compensating for the technological gap, and this requires science and technology. This is a matter of survival and development of the country. Primary task.
I will soon prepare a set of tasks and directions that are relevant for implementation in Russia.
https://t.me/glazieview/1738