Monday, July 03, 2017

Tim Taylor on the next recession

From what direction is the next recession coming?
"Given the good news of weak inflation, it seems plausible that the next recession will arise out during the next financial crisis. At least right now, such a crisis seems most likely to arise outside of the US and European economies. Instead, there are some troubling signs of excessive debt and financial strain in some emerging market economies, as well as in Canada. "

I found this bit confusing:
"The clear implication from this earlier line of thought is that recessions don't die of old age; instead, they are murdered by the Fed." is not clear, he may mean some thing else. Compare the sentence which comes soon after "No postwar recovery has died in bed of old age--the Federal Reserve has murdered every one of them. " The analysis assumes that there will be no wars etc.
P.S. The text is modified now. Since there were no responses here or on Facebook, I wrote to him and he has clarified.

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